"U.S.-China Relations "
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy
August 8, 2008
Ambassador Roy presided over the final seminar in the 2008 Policymakers series on August 8, sharing his insight on various aspects of the Sino-American relationship. Born on the mainland and rising to become America’s top envoy to China, Amb. Roy was able to provide a unique perspective to the vital and complex relationship that has grown between the two nations.
Amb. Roy began his seminar by addressing possible reasons Americans struggle to find the right perspective for viewing China, suggesting conflict arises from to an inability for Americans to comprehend the vast differences in the countries’ geographic and demographics.
For years, the U.S. has fervently sought to transform China’s one-party system into a representative government similar to that of America. Amb. Roy, however, maintains that the American system of government would be disastrous if applied to China.
If China were to adopt the American style of representative government, the first problem they would encounter would be how to size the legislative body. If China based district sizes on population as the U.S. does, the resulting congress would number over 3,000 representatives. On the other hand, if China increased district populations to have the same number of representatives as the U.S. House of Representatives, those congressional districts would be approximately the population of Singapore.
Regarding the question of whether China will become democratic with time, Amb. Roy contrasted China’s current situation and projected developments to the pessimistic views of China expert James Mann, author of “The Reform Fantasy.” China currently has the highest levels of optimism in Asia, with 82 percent of the population thinking the country is headed in the right direction. The economy is performing well, and although there are still various human rights violations, these have been dramatically reduced in the last few years.
From his personal experiences in Asia, Roy observed that although there is nothing “automatic” about economic development eventually producing liberal democracy, the formula has worked 100 percent of the time in the past. He gave the examples of South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Indonesia, saying the process simply requires time.
Amb. Roy continued by speaking about the effect of China’s emergence on international relations. He pointed out the world really has no modern experience in dealing with a powerful China. China has only had about 50 years with a nation-state system, which until recently had been characterized as weak and backward. Now that China is well on its way to reestablishing itself as the Middle Kingdom, it must choose what kind of model to follow when participating in international affairs.
A domineering China could potentially create a coalition of resistance by China’s Asian neighbors, as occurred in the case of the Soviet Union. The Chinese have carefully examined history and because China has been extremely careful not to become involved in conflict abroad, it is likely this kind of China will not materialize. However, as China becomes stronger and its sense of self begins to change, it is probable that policies also will shift.
In determining whether the U.S. and China can maintain a stable relationship during this period of change, dialogue and leadership will be the most important factors. Amb. Roy raised the question of priorities; which is more important, criticizing China about its human rights record or assuring Chinese cooperation in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue? Even though China is exponentially larger than it was in 1976, Amb. Roy observed that the Sino-American relationship is ten times better than it used to be. A stable Sino-American relationship will be achieved through an open dialogue and by welcoming Chinese to the United States. After all, Chinese students and leaders are all increasingly spending some portion of time in the west. They are exposed to religious freedom, an independent judiciary, and a free press operating as a check and return home to apply these concepts.
The successful application of these ideals will be determined by the ability to create change while maintaining stability and continuing rapid economic growth. As Amb. Roy pointed out, no Chinese leader wants end up like Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who started change and ended up losing control. However, only time will tell whether China will be added to the list of successful Asian democratic transformations.
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